Election 2024: An unlikely scenario

Besides being a hell of a lot of fun, the absolute dream race in 2024 — for most Democrats, at any rate — would be a contest where Donald Trump narrowly loses the Republican nomination for the presidency to Ron DeSantis (whom he apparently detests) and decides to run on a third-party ticket (Reform Party, People’s Party, Make America Great Party, America First party).

Here’s the scenario. Somehow, DeSantis wins the Iowa caucuses. Trump is bloodied going into New Hampshire but manages a comeback (think Hillary Clinton 2008). The race then shifts to the South and Trump wins South Carolina but DeSantis takes his home state of Florida where he and Trump are both residents but where he has more institutional support than the ex-president.

Trump screams “foul” (big surprise) and accuses DeSantis of engineering the win to protect establishment politicians and hacks. The nominating race goes back and forth, but unlike in 2016, the party bigwigs and poobahs manage to hold Trump off and he eventually loses the nomination narrowly (The comparison would be Ford v Reagan in 1976).   

Trump decides to run as an independent. He skewers DeSantis: “DeSantis is a phony, doesn’t connect with people,” and so on. Mostly mindless nonsense but mindless nonsense can work like a charm!! Trump selects none other than Kari Lake, the Arizona gubernatorial candidate and Trump acolyte, as his running mate. She’s relatively young, an absolute killer on the stump, knows the camera from her years as a TV reporter and did come within a point or so of being elected governor last year. Of course, she has zero experience but again, that isn’t going to stop anyone in 2024. Trump had no experience in government either when he won the electoral college.  

DeSantis plays it safe and selects a computer-generated running mate. Since he probably needs a woman, he decides on Nikki Haley of South Carolina, a former governor and United Nations ambassador but a losing candidate for the nomination. The ticket is nicely balanced but the appeal is probably limited.

How does such a scenario play out? Well, it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to realize that Biden would very likely win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. He’d also probably carry Georgia and Arizona, just as he did in 2020. In this scenario, Biden would have a real shot at winning Florida and Texas in a three-way race since all he would need is 40 percent or less of the vote to come on top in that three-way contest.  

Even if Biden didn’t carry Florida or Texas (or even  Arizona and Georgia), the incumbent would win the electoral college handily. If Biden does add those states, he ends up with a big electoral college victory.  The blue states stay blue since neither DeSantis nor Trump were going to win all of them, let alone while splitting the GOP vote.  

The Hispanic vote breaks largely for Biden with some chunk going to Trump and a share going to DeSantis. Still, it probably breaks at least three-to-two for Biden if not at a higher ratio. Same thing with the Black vote. Biden gets his 90 percent or so and DeSantis gets next to zip! That’s right, zip. Trump possibly takes 5, 6, 7 percent of the Black vote, mostly younger Black men who like his machismo, tough talk and the rest.   

White suburban women vote Biden at a 55-percent clip, with the other 45 percent split between the others (how, I don’t have a clue).

Trump skewers DeSantis while Biden sits back and looks like a wise and calm commander in chief. Trump curses both DeSantis and Biden but the press and the attention are all focused on DeSantis/Trump. DeSantis barely defends himself as he’s afraid of alienating that shrinking but loud and angry white base, male and female.  

The election is likely called on election night. Biden and Harris sweep to a second term.